CalibratedDecisions.

Repo · Benchmarks & research

Jev Does Not Play Dice

Independent calibration evaluation of Jev on fair random draws with known probabilities and synthetic forecast documents, with recorded outputs and…

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From the repository

Experiments on Jev’s probability calibration, uncertainty reporting, and forecast probability preservation.

How builders describe it

Independent calibration evaluation of Jev on fair random draws with known probabilities and synthetic forecast documents, with recorded outputs and offline recomputation.
Recorded experiments on how Jev reports probability rather than whether it predicts well. On a hidden fair die it picked an option with a mean reported probability of 82.9% while accuracy stayed at 19.0% over 400 trials, and Choice lost a stated 45% versus 55% distinction in an input document.

The decision Jev makes

Benchmark questions with known answers, to check accuracy and confidence.

Where it fits

Head-to-head tests, calibration studies and independent research into how well Jev decides, how fast, and at what cost. All 682 benchmarks & research projects →

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